March 9-13, 2020. Correction of European currencies is expected


The previous week was marked by an abnormal growth of European currencies amid a decline in the dollar index. Obviously, this is due to the massive reduction in rates by global central banks. The coming week will mark the position of the European Central Bank of the ECB on this issue, which will determine currency trends.

High probability of correction of major currencies after the ECB meeting, but the reversal clearly indicated by the dollar index indicates the global tactics of capital diversification. Apparently, investors decided during the current crisis to distribute financial flows among European and Asian countries.

In addition to the obvious impact on the economy, coronavirus formats the calendar of political events. In particular, the EU-India summit was canceled due to coronavirus infection in officials in Strasbourg. For the same reason, meetings of the European Parliament will be transferred to Brussels.

In the United States, a major health conference with Donald Trump was canceled, coronavirus may make adjustments to the election race of US presidential candidates and the White House work schedule.

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March 2-6, 2020. Conglomerate of fundamental problems


London announced its mandate for trade negotiations with the European Union. It turned out to be no less rigid and quite ultimatum. First, the British continue to insist that the trade deal with the EU should be similar to the agreement with Canada. Secondly, the Johnson team ruled out the possibility of prolonging the transition period – although almost all experts unanimously say that the parties will not have time to agree on all the nuances of future relationships for such a short period. But London stands its ground. They identified an intermediate “deadline”. If by June it becomes clear that until December the parties will not be able to conclude a trade agreement, then Britain will go into preparation for exit without a deal. According to Johnson, by the beginning of the summer, negotiators should agree at least on the general features of future relations. The British also once again emphasized that they would not follow the rules and regulations of the European Union.

Thus, the dispositions of the parties indicate that a fierce struggle between the negotiators awaits us in the coming months. The British mandate runs counter to almost everyone with the requirements of Brussels, and in categorical form. It is likely that during the many months of negotiations, the parties will nevertheless make certain compromises – as was the case during last year’s dialogue. But initially, negotiators will almost certainly demonstrate an extremely tough and peremptory line of behavior, thereby raising rates and expressing readiness for any outcome of the negotiations. Therefore, the results of the first meetings of the negotiating groups can put strong pressure on the British currency. Despite the price pullback at the close of the previous trading week, the GBPUSD pair is likely to continue the downward movement next week, especially if the first dialogue between the negotiators ends on a minor note. The immediate goal of the downward movement of GBPUSD is the support level of 1.2670.

The theme of coronavirus will continue to hold an important place among the factors of next week affecting the Forex currency market. Investors will receive the first objective reports on the impact of the virus on China after the release of the February economic indicators. Negative values ​​will result in a demand for debt obligations of the US government, which will lead to a stronger dollar and affect the depreciation of major currencies.

The implementation of this option may call into question the rumors about preparations for a significant reduction in the Fed rate, which already ensured the growth of the euro at the end of the past week. In this case, it will be difficult to determine the trend, therefore, it is better not to trade with the aim of making a profit on major currency pairs.

February 24-28, 2020. Correction of the main trends


This week, the correction of the main trends caused by the strengthening of the dollar is likely. The technical and fundamental factors of the next five days are able to reverse the prevailing trend of strengthening gold and the growth of the dollar at the first sign of problems in the American economy. They can occur when publishing the trade balance and GDP.
A possible correction does not yet change the global demand for defensive assets, since the pandemic arose at the point most vulnerable to the global economy. Despite the efforts of physicians, no vaccine was found in two months, the recession of new diseases is ensured by unprecedented standards of isolation, from which the largest international consumer sector suffers. This together plays to strengthen the dollar and weaken other world currencies.