This week will be the first full-fledged working week in the new 2019 year. The main event will be, obviously, the fact of opening a new round of trade negotiations between China and the United States. Their results will have a big impact on the markets. In the event of a positive outcome, the main currencies will strengthen against the US dollar. Failure will lead to the opposite effect – the growth of the dollar.
The start of preliminary discussions on the Brexit topic before voting in Parliament, scheduled for January 14-18, will be the second significant political event of the week. Hopes for a “soft exit” of the country from the European Union are less and less, military units are brought to combat readiness, Ireland will receive additional police forces to fight riots. If this situation develops, the pound may plummet
The United States is still without a budget and hope for a compromise. Nancy Pelosi, an opponent and critic of Donald Trump, took the post of speaker in the House of Representatives, the third most politically significant in the country. Under her leadership, a new version of the budget was adopted and sent to the American president for signature. The probability of its receipt is zero – the financial document does not contain expenses for the border wall with Mexico. The President of the United States is still limited to written and verbal threats to achieve the desired, but any real actions will affect the stock and currency markets in an unpredictable way.