January 14-20, 2019


Most important this week:

  • voting in the English Parliament on the terms of leaving the European Union;
  • another attempt to overcome the “Shatdaun” in the United States;
  • reports of world energy agencies on the state of the oil market;
  • an unplanned visit by Vice Premier of the State Council of the PRC Liu He is possible with the aim of continuing negotiations with the United States;
  • Donald Trump’s official rejection of a trip to Davos.

These events are very likely to lead to the strengthening of the US dollar, and a vote in the British Parliament will cause high volatility of the pound and the euro. Traders should be careful on January 14 and 15. The Prime Minister Theresa May in the coming days should submit a backup plan in case of non-acceptance by deputies of the Brexit conditions proposed by Brussels.

British parliamentarians in advance preoccupied with limiting the financial and fiscal actions of the Government during the transitional period until March 2019 – the date of exit from the Eurozone. Starting next week, UK civil servants may experience a crisis of budget financing in the United States.

In the United States, government agencies are not working for the 20th day, the Democrats have sent a new draft budget to the Senate, not including the cost item for the construction of the border wall. Perhaps congressmen will not vote for this document, knowing in advance the reaction of Donald Trump.

In any case, even if a compromise is reached, it will take time to open the work of government agencies, which means that the economic forum in Davos will take place without Trump, who promised not to leave the United States without a ratified Budget.

The only advantage of such a decision can be a personal meeting with Vice-Premier of the State Council of the PRC Liu He, about which Finance Minister Stephen Mnuchin spoke out, and the signing of the first written agreements following the first round of trade negotiations.

Also this week should decide the fate of the growing oil. The reports of the world energy agencies will show the real balance of international oil supply and demand, as well as the level of production in exporting countries.