February 4-8: rising oil prices and lull in Asian markets


From Monday, the exchanges and currencies of countries in the Asia-Pacific region will be without volumes – the Chinese New Year is coming, which will take the entire working week to celebrate. Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and New Zealand will join this event. Therefore, in the markets of Asian currencies will be a lull.

The focus will be on events in Venezuela. A special contact group of representatives from the EU and Latin America will join the attempts to solve the problem of dual power and avoid a civil war in this country next week.
These events will boost oil prices. Additional support for oil prices will be provided by the OPEC Summit, where the Charter will be discussed, allowing the cartel’s limitations to be extended to oil-producing states that are not part of it.

The Brexit theme, which had previously strengthened the pound, can now have a negative impact on it if Teresa May fails to meet with EU leaders within a week. “Brexit without a contract” is the worst option, but EU politicians publicly refuse to negotiate.

The following important events are expected in the USA:

  • China should respond to Donald Trump’s ultimatum to conclude a trade agreement before March 1;
  • the Fed should raise $ 52 billion from the market, which is one and a half times the usual amount of purchases;
  • Canada will decide on the extradition of the daughter of Huawei founder to the United States;
  • Trump will address the US Congress;
  • The former President’s lawyer will testify to the House Committee of Representatives committee in exchange for protection from prosecution.

    These events will contribute to the strengthening of the US dollar and pressure on European currencies, which together with the Brexit events are likely to significantly lower the British pound.

    Large movements of currencies, obviously, will be timed to the time of the release of the following news: meetings on the level of interest rates of the Central Bank of Great Britain, Australia, India, Brazil, as well as the publication of data on US GDP.