January 25-29, 2021. Old trends continue


There were many high-profile events in the past week. For example, Joe Biden’s inauguration, which, thank God, passed without incidents, rallies and riots. The new US president immediately began to reverse some of Donald Trump’s decisions and decrees, showing that he fundamentally disagrees with his policies. There is a tendency in Biden’s actions to return to the order established at the time by Obama. Obama’s influence on Biden’s actions is clearly visible. Given Obama’s physical youth, it can be assumed that he will actually be the shadow president. This means that the course of America as a whole will remain the same. However, there may be a lot of factors determining the direction of the dollar’s movement. But they are more likely to form short-term trends, while the trends of high timeframes will remain the same. Also last week, the ECB held a meeting, at which not a single important decision was made. Thus, the most important was the press conference with Christine Lagarde, and not the outcome of the meeting. However, Mrs. Lagarde also did not report anything fundamentally new to the markets. As usual, the talk was about the high euro exchange rate, low inflation, threats and risks associated with the “coronavirus” pandemic. In addition, Janet Yellen, the former head of the Fed and now the US Treasury Secretary, delivered a lengthy speech this week. The most important thesis voiced by Yellen was the rejection of attempts to influence the American currency rate, as it was under Donald Trump. According to Yellen, her department will not interfere with the exchange rate of the dollar. In general, as we can see, there were many interesting events, but none of them had a special effect on the dollar rate. Most of the week, the euro was growing, continuing the trend of the last 9-10 months. There is also nothing special to single out from macroeconomic statistics. Inflation in the EU remained at a negative level. Business activity in the service sector remained below the 50.0 level. Nothing unexpected happened. Therefore, the overall situation on the markets remains unchanged, and we can assume that the old trends will continue.