September 23-27, 2019. Only the dollar is good now


For the British pound, bad news. Recently, the British currency has often risen in price solely on the positive expectations of market participants regarding Brexit. It was assumed that the parties would conclude an agreement and disperse in a friendly manner. Each message that hinted at such a completion of the process was actively accompanied by purchases of the pound. But in 100% of cases, these messages were then not confirmed by the facts and real actions of the parties, and the pound very quickly returned to its original position and updated the lows. Now we can witness something like that. Yes, the “hard” Brexit seems to be delayed. Yes, it seems that the parties agreed to postpone the date. But what does it give? There is additional time that Boris Johnson will spend on finding workarounds for implementing the “hard” Brexit. But the lack of a favorable fundamental background can reverse the movement of the pound and provoke its new fall.

US authorities have decided since Friday, September 20, to exempt from duties 437 goods imported from China. Market participants almost always positively perceive any news on the topic of a trade war with China, clearly interpreting them in favor of the American currency. And even the fact that the Fed still seems to have embarked on a systematic easing of monetary policy has not yet exerted proper pressure on the dollar. Therefore, the dollar will tend to grow in the coming week, putting pressure on other currencies.