January 21-25, 2019

2019-01-19

The movement of major currencies in the coming week will be determined by the following factors:

  1. The direction of the monetary policy of the Eurozone and Japan, which will be disclosed at a press conference following the meetings of the ECB and the Bank of Japan. Mario Draghi has already hinted at a “pigeon attitude” in an interview after speaking before the European Commission that this could weaken the euro in the near future. Haruhiko Kuroda is forced to find incentives for the development of the economy, the search may lead to unexpected statements from the mouth of the chief banker of Japan.
  2. The meeting of the Vice-Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China Liu He with the President of the United States Donald Trump, who officially refused to go to the International Economic Forum in Davos. Statement on the visit of Liu He to Washington from the official representative of the Ministry of Commerce of China Gao Feng sounded before the appearance in the press of information about the investigation regarding Huawei. The US Department of Justice intends to accuse an IT company of technological espionage. To neutralize the resulting negative, Trump can cancel the increased duties on Chinese imports imposed during the trade wars.
  3. Shatdaun may be completed this week, the US State Department called all employees from the holidays, promising to pay salaries soon, which were frozen during the absence of the adopted annual federal budget.
  4. Theresa May’s new plan – the English Parliament ordered the Prime Minister to submit another document on Monday, in exchange for the conditions previously rejected by MPs for secession from the EU.
  5. Quarterly and annual reports of other large companies and statements by politicians, heads of corporations during the Davos forum.

A lot of news affecting the markets in the direction of growth of major currencies, and in the direction of their fall, can lead to unpredictable movements in the market. Therefore, it is not possible to make long-term forecasts for traders. It is recommended this week not to plan long-term positions for major currency pairs, as the likelihood of unexpected price changes is high.

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