The second wave of the epidemic began in Europe. Against this background, the dollar strengthened slightly, and market players began to have hopes for a trend change. But the statistics came as an unpleasant surprise.
If the latest US data could be interpreted as an improvement in the country’s economic condition, then the retail sales indicator canceled all this, making traders doubt the positive trend. The growth in retail sales did not meet the market expectations, the indicator increased by 1.2%, while market players expected it to increase by 1.9% in July. Therefore, the dollar returned to a downtrend in the medium term.
Also, American lawmakers cannot agree on the amount of assistance to the economy and citizens of the country affected by the pandemic. The more they delay this moment, the more negative the consequences for the economy and consumer spending will be. Retail sales are an extremely important record for the dollar. However, the data may well correct market expectations for fiscal policy.
As for the EURUSD pair, it begins to feel pressure from the sellers. But it should be noted that a bearish trend has yet to form. Thus, on long-term timeframes for most currency pairs, there is a flat, in which short-term and medium-term trends are periodically observed, synchronously with the release of important news in the global economy.
The oil market may open with a gap towards sales on Monday. This is due to the fact that Saturday (August 15) negotiations between the United States and China have been postponed, which indicates a confrontational basis in the negotiations. Beijing and Washington continue to insist on their readiness to fulfill their obligations under the trade agreement, but the Chinese side accuses the United States of pursuing a policy of protectionism and thereby interfering with the implementation of the deal, and the United States launched an investigation into how correct China’s policy was in the fight with coronavirus, and do not rule out serious consequences if China’s guilt is proven.