March 16-20, 2020. Coronavirus and oil

2020-03-14

The number of deaths from COVID-19 exceeded the 5,000th mark, and the total number of infected reached 137,000. Both indicators are growing daily, reflecting the spread of the epidemic around the world. At the same time, in China the epidemic began to decline – over the past day there were registered only 11 new cases. But, perhaps, this is the only more or less good news, because in the rest of the world everything is just beginning.

The officially recognized Covid-19 pandemic continues to adjust the political agenda of the week. Important negotiations between Great Britain and the European Union were canceled, European Commission contacts were limited, the Canadian Prime Minister was quarantined, activities related to the US presidential race were stopped.

An “empty” political calendar deprives the Forex currency market of a number of fundamental drivers, giving more weight to economic news. The focus of next week is decisions on the Fed rate and BoJ, as well as the actions of OPEC countries.

The price of oil has already become one of the reasons for the collapse of stock markets and the growth of the dollar, the disruption of negotiations on March 18 may strengthen this trend. On the same day, he will come up with a decision on the Fed interest rate, analysts are confident in its reduction.

The softening of monetary policy may lead to an unexpected effect – the strengthening of the dollar. Traders could play a softening policy in the two-week March rally of the euro.