June 14-18. Fuzzy euro uptrend


The EURUSD currency pair has been mostly in one place for the last month. This is clearly seen if you look at the D1 timeframe. Of course, there is a slight downward bias, but it is too small and does not even allow us to speak of the current movement as a correction. Over the past three weeks, the price has moved only 150 points away from its local maximums, which, of course, is very, very small. In general, the volatility of recent weeks leaves much to be desired. Last week the first three days were almost motionless.
However, it should be noted that a new global uptrend started quite recently, in April. But the general growth trend has continued for 4 years. Consequently, the global trend is still far from over. Therefore, traders have the right to count on a new strong strengthening of the European currency. And of course, one should not forget about the main fundamental factor that continues to create serious pressure on the American currency – the excessive saturation of the American economy with dollars. Therefore, the dollar is depreciating not only in the international foreign exchange market, but also within its own country.
Not much macroeconomic events are planned for the next week in the European Union. Only reports on industrial production and inflation. Industrial production has not had a significant impact on the mood of traders for a long time. But inflation can affect the movement of the European currency. The report will be published on Thursday. Christine Lagarde may also perform during the week, although no such entries are currently in the calendar of events. However, they may appear within a week. All macroeconomic statistics will be discussed in the article on the GBPUSD pair. Therefore, traders should first of all continue to consider lower timeframes. They are now more useful in terms of profit, as movements are generally weak and there is simply no trend. Therefore, it is best to track changes in the situation on higher timeframes, but at the same time open short-term positions on lower timeframes. There is nothing to single out from the global fundamental themes now. Yes, the world is now actively discussing the topic of raising taxes in the United States for the rich and corporations, the introduction of a single corporate tax throughout the world. Also in the European Union this summer, the 750 billion Euro Recovery Fund should finally begin to be distributed, which may slightly help the European economy to recover faster. However, all these topics will be reflected later in specific macroeconomic indicators. These are not any shocking or crisis topics that can seriously agitate the markets and force them to act in a state of panic or close to it, as, for example, a year ago due to the Covid-19 epidemic. So now these are just interesting economic topics. Therefore, one can continue to count on the resumption of the uptrend, but it must be borne in mind that any fundamental hypothesis requires specific technical confirmations and signals.