February 24-28, 2020. Correction of the main trends

2020-02-23

This week, the correction of the main trends caused by the strengthening of the dollar is likely. The technical and fundamental factors of the next five days are able to reverse the prevailing trend of strengthening gold and the growth of the dollar at the first sign of problems in the American economy. They can occur when publishing the trade balance and GDP.
A possible correction does not yet change the global demand for defensive assets, since the pandemic arose at the point most vulnerable to the global economy. Despite the efforts of physicians, no vaccine was found in two months, the recession of new diseases is ensured by unprecedented standards of isolation, from which the largest international consumer sector suffers. This together plays to strengthen the dollar and weaken other world currencies.

February 10-14, 2020. Coronavirus strengthens the dollar

2020-02-09

In the coming week, the intensity of economic news is low. The main focus will be on the situation around the coronavirus. The UN World Health Organization will lead the search for a vaccine, an experimental sample of which can be made in the near future. In this case, Asian and European currencies will respond positively to the real successes of biologists. But while the dollar continues to strengthen. It turns out to be stronger than all other currencies in this situation.

If the New Year holidays in China last, or the closure of production continues, this will lead to an even greater strengthening of the dollar. In this case, there will be a lot of negative comments and forecasts of large companies, which will lead to a new wave of capital movements. Beneficiaries of investments other than the dollar will be gold, US Federal Reserve bonds and cryptocurrency.

February 3-7, 2020. Under the sign of coronavirus

2020-02-02

From the first day of the week, the main focus will be on Chinese news. The country extends the vacation, foreign companies will continue to close production and offices, evacuate top management.

The decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia at the interest rate will be the main event of the second day of the week. Along with this news, statistics will be published: inflation in South Korea, permits for the construction of new houses in New Zealand, an auction of government bonds of Japan will be held. There is a high probability that this news will come out in a positive way, ensuring the growth of indices and national currencies. Australia’s economy has not suffered as much from fires as expected, the Bank of Japan may raise bond rates, and Korean inflation may exceed 1%.

Positive can spread to European markets, which will appear without important news. This may contribute to the euro if Italy does not show deflation – the country cannot cope with the growth of public debt.

The British pound has every chance to gain a foothold in the revitalization of the construction sector, the industry is showing positive results for the second month in a row.
These trends will be tested by American statistics – an increase in industrial orders is expected, which may lead to demand for dollars.

Important statistics will be saturated with the last day of the week. Trends in Asian currencies will determine the indicators of household spending in Japan, which can strengthen the yen, as demonstrated by rising indices. The Australian dollar will become dependent on the monetary future monetary policy of the RBA, published in the Protocols. The direction of the New Zealand dollar will determine the outlook for the expected quarterly inflation.

Demand for the euro will stimulate Germany’s trade balance, but a positive effect may be “lubricated” by a drop in industrial production. In this case, you need to look at the data on France’s employment, the third EU economy can demonstrate an increase in jobs.

Housing prices in the UK could lead to a sagging pound, first sagging after two months of growth. The country has officially left the EU and now negative news is perceived by traders with increased sensitivity.

The final exchange rates at the close of the trading session will be determined by the important economic indicators of the US labor market – employment, hourly wage, unemployment rate.

January 27-31, 2020. The dollar benefits

2020-01-26

In the coming week, New Year’s holidays in Asia and, especially, China. But the holidays will obviously not be fun. China goes into isolation mode, canceling film premieres, sports and other cultural events, isolating entire cities. The reason is coronavirus. The number of sick and dead will be one of the factors of daily influence on Forex.
Among other obvious drivers of the foreign exchange market are decisions on the level of interest rates in the USA and Great Britain. According to forecasts, they can lead to an increase in the dollar index relative to major currencies, as the UK withdraws from the EU, as well as the development of a viral disease in China.

January 20-24, 2020. Political news outrages the markets

2020-01-18

Over the coming week, markets will be outraged by the following factors.
The US Senate will consider the impeachment of Trump. There is new evidence of his guilt.
The fundamental news of England predicts the stability of the current position of the pound. Therefore, on Monday a large northern gap on GBPUSD is likely. You can make good profit on this gap.
Three meetings of the Central Banks of the world’s leading economies and the Davos Economic Forum are the main reasons for the unexpected movements in the Forex market over the next week. Traders are waiting for the announcement of the new ECB policy, possible plans to move away from the negative rates of the Bank of Japan and the first steps to implement foreign exchange agreements with the United States by the People’s Bank of China.
In addition to monetary events, daily news from the fields of the international economic forum, which will be attended by heads of state, IMF, WB and major corporations, will come to the Forex market.
Therefore, increased volatility and unpredictable movements are expected in the markets.