Early in the morning on Monday statistics on GDP and the volume of production in China. It is likely that these statistics will be worse than expectations, which will lead to a sharp strengthening of the dollar. Weekend insider information can lead to large gaps when opening markets.
During the week, the forecasts of the Fed rate cut will contribute to the growth of major currencies. However, the unstable position of the global economy will again lead to an increase in the role of the dollar in the market.
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G20 summit is over. But its results were largely unclear. Much remains at the level of agreements of the leaders of the countries. In any case, large gaps are expected on the market on Monday, caused by a different understanding of traders of the related economic trends.
Traders will still be attracted by the purchase of major currencies in exchange for the US dollar, due to the expected reduction in the Fed rate in July.
This trend can seriously correct the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, as well as the consequences of political agreements between the leaders of the G20 countries at the last summit. In this case, investors will prefer to move capital in US Treasury bonds, strengthening the dollar index.
In the coming week, the trends of the main world currencies will be determined by the G-20 summit. A number of important bilateral talks between the heads of state will take place in Osaka, among which Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet.
The positive outcome of the communication between the two leaders can stop the course of the trade war, slowing the global economy, the positive results will return the dollar to the levels of the highs of the year. The G20 summit will last two days – June 28 and 29 and will end with the adoption of a declaration, the contents of which the markets will play on the first day of July. Probably, there will be big gaps in the markets.
The course of oil was completely dominated by the Middle East conflict, which caused the postponement of the OPEC meeting from late June to early July. The attack on tankers, in which they accused Iran, which shot down an American drone, provokes the US to a military response – Donald Trump postponed a rocket attack scheduled for the end of the week at the last minute.
This situation makes it completely impossible for the current forecast of prices for raw materials. Traders should pay attention to the negotiations organized by the EU countries and the UK in Paris. They are aimed at removing the tension in the Middle East during a meeting of State Department Special Representative Brian Hook with Iranian representatives through the mediation of the European Union.
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