In the coming week, the trends of the main world currencies will be determined by the G-20 summit. A number of important bilateral talks between the heads of state will take place in Osaka, among which Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet.
The positive outcome of the communication between the two leaders can stop the course of the trade war, slowing the global economy, the positive results will return the dollar to the levels of the highs of the year. The G20 summit will last two days – June 28 and 29 and will end with the adoption of a declaration, the contents of which the markets will play on the first day of July. Probably, there will be big gaps in the markets.
The course of oil was completely dominated by the Middle East conflict, which caused the postponement of the OPEC meeting from late June to early July. The attack on tankers, in which they accused Iran, which shot down an American drone, provokes the US to a military response – Donald Trump postponed a rocket attack scheduled for the end of the week at the last minute.
This situation makes it completely impossible for the current forecast of prices for raw materials. Traders should pay attention to the negotiations organized by the EU countries and the UK in Paris. They are aimed at removing the tension in the Middle East during a meeting of State Department Special Representative Brian Hook with Iranian representatives through the mediation of the European Union.
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The expected political events of the week will contribute to the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of other major currencies. The main reasons are the trade war imposed by the United States on Mexico and the results of the meetings of the head of the People’s Bank of China with US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.
The United States represented by Stephen Mnuchin is trying to dictate its conditions to China. Trump prepared the basis for this and set another ultimatum by entering protective duties on goods from the PRC in the amount of $ 300 billion immediately after the end of the G-20 summit. China can now abandon the previously scheduled meeting of the two leaders in Osaka or take a step towards defusing the confrontation by sending a message through the US Treasury.
Theresa May announced her resignation. The struggle for the premiership has already begun. In this regard, gaps on currency pairs with GBP are expected on the night from Sunday to Monday. Gap and Trail robot will help you get a profit from this.
The results of the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from 23 to 26 May, will determine not only the future political picture of Europe, but also predict the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Europe.
The current head of the Central Bank of Europe, Mario Draghi, will leave office in October, but the candidacy of the successor will be roughly known by the results of the number of seats occupied by the EU political parties in parliament. The uncertainty of the future monetary course will also lead to a temporary outflow of funds from positions in euros.
Among the minor news can be noted the start of negotiations on candidates for the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain (Theresa May will leave him in June) and a possible escalation in the “Iranian direction”.
The United States has closed the possibility of exceptional oil supplies from Iran to eight countries, but China demonstratively violates this ban by openly unloading tankers. What response will these events cause, what results will the investigation of an attack on tankers in the UAE come to, how will the additional US military forces end up on the shores of the Islamic Republic? Answers to these questions, and related trends in the foreign exchange markets, we are waiting for this week.