April 15-19. Before catholic Easter


The most important event of this week will be trade negotiations between the United States and Japan. Negotiations will be held in Washington, they will hold the ministers of economy of the two countries. This is a meeting of long-standing trading partners, so problems with the subsequent ratification of the agreements reached are not expected. This should help strengthen the rates of both the dollar and the yen.

Also, the economic negotiations of China with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. This usually does not lead to large movements in the currency markets.

Thus, the upcoming week is expected to calm for trade. You should also note that the trading week will be short due to the beginning of the celebration of Catholic Easter on Friday, and the next Monday of April 22 will also be a day off.

April 8 – 12. Strengthening dollar


The political and economic events of the coming week suggest a strengthening of the trend towards the strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies. Investors will move funds into Fed bonds due to the high likelihood of the UK leaving the EU on April 12 without an agreement.

Additional demand for the US currency will provide certainty in the timing of the end of negotiations with China. The US president publicly assured investors that the trade agreement would be signed by the PRC leader in three to four weeks.

The first week of April – we expect the dollar to weaken


In the first week of April 2019, the dollar is expected to weaken. This is due to two factors: the weakening of the US position in trade negotiations with China, and everything that is already pretty annoying Brexit.

Questions in the negotiations the US and China are fixated on the fact that China has agreed to prescribe at the legislative level the right of access to the domestic market for American companies. Obviously, the conditions are not quite acceptable for the United States, so they extend the negotiations for weeks or even months.

The deputies of England will consider the third time Tereza May’s Brexit proposal under the guarantee of the Prime Minister’s resignation.
Brexit’s theme will be heard again on Monday, Parliament is obliged to consider civilian petitions that have collected more than 100 thousand signatures. For the abolition of Article 50, providing for a break in relations with the European Union, were more than 5 million citizens. Another 4 other options of civil will also exceeded the one hundred thousandth threshold. The petitions will be considered by the Parliament on an optional basis, since in fact the deputies have already voted for these proposals.

The last week of March – is probably the fall of the dollar


The trend has begun to weaken the dollar. It will probably be long term. The reason – the US Federal Reserve refused to raise interest rates in 2019. The rate was left at 2.5%.

In Beijing, on March 27-28, the eighth round of China-US trade negotiations will take place. The PRC wants firm guarantees of the abolition of increased duties before the final meeting with Donald Trump, who, on the contrary, promised to restore sanctions in the near future. If the trade negotiations do not end by the end of the week by announcing the date of the summit, this will reinforce the fall of the dollar.

A new situation with Brexit can slow the dollar down or cancel it – if the English Parliament chooses the option of leaving the EU next week without a deal.